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On Sunday, the nation of CAR will hold a significant quadruple election, encompassing the presidential race, national assembly, and local positions.

A Competitive Presidential Field

A field of seven contenders are competing for the presidency, including former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were given approval to stand by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra had a short tenure under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Voter Frustrations

The opposition hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This represents an opportunity to acknowledge the remarkable recovery of the nation," noted a senior UN diplomat, adding that challenges remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to secure another term. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, holding the post until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for impartiality from the warring factions powered his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

Concerns persist that logistical problems and violence could disrupt the electoral process, particularly in the countryside. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is offering protection and organizational aid that the country's weak systems is unable to provide.

Further issues involve the voter list being published only online, a major hurdle in a nation with scarce online access. These irregularities have prompted an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "disenfranchise large segments of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that abolished term limits and extended mandates—would mean expanded sway for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for his protection, and despite its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. Meanwhile, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Recent reports have stated the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to accommodate a foreign-run livestock operation. A critical commentary charged the leadership of being "intent on dispose of the nation piece by piece."

Amid a recent peace accord with armed factions offering hope of calm, the election moves forward under a shadow of uncertainty and external competition.