How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Joshua Payne
Joshua Payne

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