Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look strangely fragile – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.