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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd