🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.