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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.